The future UK population is projected to grow to 72.5 million by mid-2032, driven by net migration from 67.6 million in mid-2022, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday (28 Jan). Reuters reported.
The level of immigration to Britain has increased in recent years, and the government department’s ONS estimates are likely to fuel debate about the capacity of strained public services to cope with impending population growth and the need for foreign workers to drive the economy.
But successive administrations, including the Labor government of United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer, have pledged to reduce immigration.
According to the ONS, with the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the UK estimated to total 4.9 million over the 10-year period.
Estimated and projected population of the UK and constituent countries from mid-2022 to mid-2047 according to the Office for National Statistics (in millions):
| Year | UK | England | Wales | Scotland | Northern Ireland |
| 2022 | 67.6 | 57.1 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 |
| 2027 | 70.9 | 60.0 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 |
| 2032 | 72.5 | 61.6 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 2.0 |
| 2037 | 74.0 | 62.9 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 |
| 2042 | 75.3 | 64.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 1.9 |
| 2047 | 76.6 | 65.4 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 1.9 |
Independent British think tank Resolution Foundation, on the other hand, thinks the population projections will be welcome news for UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves as they will boost the size of the country’s economy forecast, which will reduce government debt.
Adam Corlett, chief economist at the Resolution Foundation, said in a statement on projected population growth that a larger working population would mean a bigger economy, more workers, and higher tax receipts, which would boost the economy by around £5 billion a year by the end of the decade.
Although the birth rate in the UK was projected to rise slightly, the number of births and deaths is expected to remain the same between 2022 and 2032, according to the ONS. In the country, deaths are also expected to increase due to the large number of people born in the two decades after 1945 who have grown old.
The ONS projections also assume a long-term net migration level of 340,000 per year from the end of last year to mid-2028.
ONS data showed last year that UK net migration reached a record of more than 900,000 in the year to June, and the population grew by 1% in annual terms to 68.3 million by mid-2023, mainly due to immigration.
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