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Spain is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup, which will be held in the United States, Mexico, and Canada from June 11 to July 19, according to a Goldman Sachs model released on Friday. Using the teams’ historical performance and ranking data, the model puts Spain ahead of France, Argentina, and Brazil in the race to win the World Cup.
According to the model, Spain has a 26% chance of winning the upcoming World Cup, followed by France (19%), reigning champions Argentina (14%), Brazil (8%), and England (5%).
Goldman made their predictions based on each soccer team’s Elo rating, simulated match outcomes, and additional factors such as offensive talent, recent pace, mentality, and geographic location.
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The bank has forecast that Lionel Messi’s team’s chances of winning the title will be reduced, largely due to the “winner’s slump” effect. According to ScienceDirect, this effect refers to a decline in performance or motivation after a big win.
Morocco defeated Spain in a penalty shootout in the Round of 16 of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. However, Argentina defeated France in the same World Cup to win the title for the third time.
Reuters’s reporting contributed to this article.
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